I believe we’re on path SSP1-2.6  –  not good.
The world could be better than 1-1.9  –  how?

The light blue line could go down to minus 40 by year 2100
- if politicians and companies took serious action for CO2 removals.

- - - - -
The numbers (1.9 etc.) are not temperature, they’re radiative forcing.
Temperatures are in post 2
SSP = Shared Socio-economic Pathway
y = GtCO2/yr

(1/3) Source in post 3


Which path do you believe we're on?

Best estimate of global warming:
SSP1-1.9   1.4 °C
SSP1-2.6   1.8 °C
SSP2-4.5   2.7 °C

SSP1-1.9   (1.0 °C to 1.8 °C)
SSP1-2.6   (1.3 °C to 2.4 °C)
SSP2-4.5   (2.1 °C to 3.5 °C)

(2/3) Source in post 3




IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate […] Cambridge University Press. In Press.


The whole world:
▫️ doing nothing to reduce CO2 emissions --> SSP5
▫️ reducing emissions to net-zero and then removing CO2 from the atmosphere --> SSP1

SSP5 = Unthinkably bad weather disasters. Lots of animals going extinct. Lots of humans dying.

SSP1 = A bit worse than now. Small weather disasters that humanity can deal with.

@JohanEmpa impossible to tell really.

these extra long term scenario narratives backing-in a lot of assumptions that could be invalidated both for better and worse with dramatic consequences:

in a positive surprise scenario global cooperation could intensify and mobilize the enormous collective resources towards monumental technology solutions and behavioral adaptions

in a negative surprise scenaro the exact opposite: degeneration into war and conflict and complete disregard for environment

@JohanEmpa right now, clearly our path will take us to closer to 5ºC rise. We will reduce from that but by how much, is the question. Best hope without a significant change in society and politics is 2.5ºC. Let’s see what actual policies are forthcoming at COP26. I believe it would be physically possible to stay under 1.5ºC but not within a profit driven society.

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