Mark Ingalls<p>New article: La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025
<a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/l...</a>
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#orwx
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Mark Ingalls<p>New article: La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025</p><p><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-nina-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ingallswx.com/2025/04/10/la-ni</span><span class="invisible">na-has-ended-enso-neutral-conditions-favored-into-fall-2025/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/lanina" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>lanina</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a></p>
Ingalls Weather<p><strong>La Niña has ended, ENSO-Neutral conditions favored into Fall 2025</strong></p><p>The latest update from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center declared that La Niña has ended in the Pacific Ocean. We noted in some recent episodes of the <a href="https://ingallswx.com/comedeorology/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Comedeorological Report</a> that this was coming as sea surface temperatures along the equator had warmed.</p><p>La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is driven by sea surface temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The warm phase is El Niño while being near average is commonly called ENSO-Neutral.</p><blockquote><p><em>Ingalls Weather thanks the support it gets from donors. Please consider making a small donation </em><a href="https://ingallswx.com/donate/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">at this link</a><em> to help me pay for the website and access to premium weather data.</em></p></blockquote><p>Last winter’s La Niña was fairly weak despite early forecasts calling for a strong event. Development was delayed, with one possible factor behind this being very warm ocean temperatures throughout the planet. During the fall months, updated forecasts improved significantly.</p><p>La Niña’s death during spring of 2025 has been well-modeled for several months. Data shows that we are likely to remain in ENSO-Neutral conditions through the summer months with neutrality also favored this fall. A bias toward neutral conditions remains in the modeling through winter 2025-26 but confidence decreases the further into the future we look.</p> <p>Type your email…</p><p>Subscribe</p> <p>Looking toward the summer, some years with similar ENSO conditions are 2018, 2006, and 2001. Where this year goes will depend on more factors than just ENSO but this can give us some foresight in what to expect. These three years appear appropriate as they all brought ENSO-Neutral summers after a weak La Niña.</p><p>Last month I published <a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/11/looking-ahead-to-summer-2025-in-north-america/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">an article</a> that drew heavily on 2022 as an analog year for this summer. In general my view remains similar to last month’s article. I think out of the four years we’re considering, 2001 is the worst match for the Pacific Northwest as sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska were well below average during the spring instead of being above average as they are now.</p><p>It is worth noting that Summer 2001 also stands out against the other three years we’re considering in that Pacific Northwest temperatures were generally below average with well above average precipitation in and west of the Cascades. as well as in the B.C. Rockies.</p>Temperature anomalies for Summer 2022 in °C. (ECMWF/Univ of Maine)<p>The rest (2006, 2018, 2022) were relatively hot and dry summers in the Northwest and British Columbia. One exception here is that thunderstorm activity in Central Oregon and the Columbia Basin was enhanced during 2022.</p><p>A warm and dry summer following this moist spring we are having brings significant wildfire risk. Snowpack in Washington and British Columbia has improved over the last few weeks but we haven’t completely made up the deficit.</p><p>Moist weather in the spring and early summer allows for rampant growth in the understory of forests and of the grasses in arid regions. As this brush dries, it becomes fuel for wildfires. Fire season starts getting under way in May or June in the inland deserts and not long after in the mountains and forests.</p><p>A quick drying and warming can exasperate conditions by turning brush into fuel early in the season while also accelerating snowmelt. In the United States, nearly 90% of wildfires are caused by human activity. Dry fuels increase the risk of fire starts as well as the risk of them spreading rapidly.</p><p>The further north one gets in British Columbia the lower the population density, though human-started fires are possible anywhere. Dry thunderstorms become a significant threat during the second half of the summer in the B.C. Interior.</p><p>Aside from the fire risk, water supply is looking limited for this summer. Washington recently issued a drought emergency for most of the state. Kennewick Irrigation District is planning to request users to follow a voluntary watering schedule. Water supply for the Yakima Valley has improved in the last few weeks but remains below what was seen last year.</p><p>ENSO-Neutral years tend to bring the more activity during the Pacific Northwest fall storm season. If these conditions can be held onto into fall as models indicate, we could be in for multiple strong regional storms like the region experienced during Fall 2024. There is not a strong enough signal to discuss how this winter may look.</p><p><em>The featured image is sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific on April 9, 2025. (NOAA)</em></p><p><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/bcstorm/" target="_blank">#BCstorm</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/lanina/" target="_blank">#lanina</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/orwx/" target="_blank">#orwx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/wawx/" target="_blank">#wawx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/weather/" target="_blank">#Weather</a></p>
Blurry Bits Photography<p>Good morning Oregon. 🌞</p><p>We get a nicer one today, after all those storms the last couple days. Radar is clear along the I-5 corridor. Looking at partly sunny and 64° around the Salem area.</p><p>Been a wetter spring here than the last few years. Keep wondering if this will eventually 'lightswitch' into the mid-80's like it did last year..</p><p>The seeds planted a couple weeks ago didn't do so great - too wet. So today we will try it all again, heh.</p><p><a href="https://beige.party/tags/orwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>orwx</span></a> <a href="https://beige.party/tags/Oregon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Oregon</span></a> <a href="https://beige.party/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://beige.party/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a> <a href="https://beige.party/tags/radar" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>radar</span></a></p>
FinchHaven hachy<p>This is the Forecast Discussion from KSEA / Seattle WA NWS at Sunday 04/06/2025 09:11:38 PDT</p><p>SYNOPSIS:</p><p>Front moving through Western Washington tonight with rain out ahead of the system spreading over the area today</p><p>Upper level trough behind the front Monday with the trough axis moving through Tuesday</p><p>Upper level ridge trying to build Wednesday</p><p>Next system arriving late Thursday with another upper level trough behind it for Friday</p><p>Copy-pasted from the "Deep Weather" app on my iPhone 14</p><p><a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/BCwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCwx</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/PNWwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNWwx</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/KSEA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>KSEA</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/NWS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NWS</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/WX" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WX</span></a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a></p>
FinchHaven sfba<p>This is the Forecast Discussion from KSEA / Seattle WA NWS at Sunday 04/06/2025 09:11:38 PDT</p><p>SYNOPSIS:</p><p>Front moving through Western Washington tonight with rain out ahead of the system spreading over the area today</p><p>Upper level trough behind the front Monday with the trough axis moving through Tuesday</p><p>Upper level ridge trying to build Wednesday</p><p>Next system arriving late Thursday with another upper level trough behind it for Friday</p><p>Copy-pasted from the "Deep Weather" app on my iPhone 14</p><p><a href="https://sfba.social/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/BCwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCwx</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/PNWwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNWwx</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/KSEA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>KSEA</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/NWS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>NWS</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/WX" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WX</span></a> <a href="https://sfba.social/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Weather</span></a></p>
AI6YR Ben<p>AP: Flooding in southeastern Oregon prompts evacuation orders, school closures and health concerns</p><p>"BURNS, Ore. — Flooding in rural southeastern Oregon from what authorities have described as “historic levels” of snowmelt and rainfall has prompted evacuation orders, school closures and public health concerns, submerging roads and agricultural land and damaging homes and businesses...."</p><p><a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-04-04/flooding-in-southeastern-oregon-prompts-evacuation-orders-school-closures-and-health-concerns" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://www.</span><span class="ellipsis">latimes.com/world-nation/story</span><span class="invisible">/2025-04-04/flooding-in-southeastern-oregon-prompts-evacuation-orders-school-closures-and-health-concerns</span></a></p><p><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/climateemergency" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>climateemergency</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/flooding" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>flooding</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a></p>
Mike<p>Yay tomorrow, perfect day for being out and about in Eugene 🌞😉</p><p>Temps in Fahrenheit</p><p><a href="https://beige.party/tags/ORWx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORWx</span></a></p>
Cadmus 🌲<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://social.edist.ro/@nws_pqr" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>nws_pqr</span></a></span> Gust at 112? Is this correct? <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/orwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>orwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/wx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wx</span></a></p>
NWS Portland Oregon Bot<p>Corvallis Muni,OR (CVO) ASOS reports gust of 112 knots (128.9 mph) from SE @ 0002Z<br>KCVO 040056Z AUTO 04007KT 10SM FEW055 14/01 A3016 RMK AO2 PK WND 140112/0002 SLP217 T01440011</p><p><a href="https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ASOS/current.phtml?network=OR_ASOS" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ASOS</span><span class="invisible">/current.phtml?network=OR_ASOS</span></a></p><p><a href="https://social.edist.ro/tags/orwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>orwx</span></a> <a href="https://social.edist.ro/tags/wawx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>wawx</span></a></p>
Ian Kluft 🖥️📡<p>I went into a store while <a href="https://pnw.zone/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> was cloudy but dry. While shopping, the forecast for scattered showers came to fruition. I returned outside to find the pavement wet and some hail on the ground. A thunderstorm had apparently just gone by, since that's the only place hail comes from. <a href="https://pnw.zone/tags/Portland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Portland</span></a> <a href="https://pnw.zone/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://pnw.zone/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a></p>
BakersRelay<p><span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/@easwatch" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>easwatch</span></a></span> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/EAS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>EAS</span></a> <a href="https://m.ai6yr.org/tags/WEA" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WEA</span></a> for Harney County: Flood Alert from Harney County Sheriff's Office. Level 3 - GO NOW - Evacuate immediately from South of Highway 20 to Riverside Dr, down KOA near the Silvies River Source: 202444,Harney County Alerts,Harney County ** DO NOT RELY ON THIS FEED FOR LIFE SAFETY, SEEK OUT OFFICIAL SOURCES ***</p>
Mark Ingalls<p>In some of the <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> group chats I'm in we are continuing to discuss what went wrong with the severe weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday.</p><p>General consensus is that it was related to the capping inversion in the Willamette Valley, but dispute continues on the specifics.</p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/BCstorm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>BCstorm</span></a></p>
genehack<p>I think we’ve had more stuff blown out of the trees today than we did yesterday during the warning… <a href="https://dementedandsadbut.social/tags/orwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>orwx</span></a></p>
Ian Kluft ✈️🎈🌋<p>"Lightning causes damage in Washington but severe weather notably absent" by <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://ingallswx.com/@ingallswx.com" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>ingallswx.com</span></a></span> / <span class="h-card" translate="no"><a href="https://mstdn.ca/@ingalls" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@<span>ingalls</span></a></span> - While there was no doubt the risks of severe weather needed to be communicated. The risks were real. As forecasters review if anything went wrong in making the forecast, it seems we dodged a bullet. <a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/lightning-causes-damage-in-washington-but-severe-weather-notably-absent/#Portland" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/light</span><span class="invisible">ning-causes-damage-in-washington-but-severe-weather-notably-absent/#Portland</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a></p>
Ian Kluft ✈️🎈🌋<p>"Behind the forecast: Why anticipated severe weather fizzled out west of the Cascades" by KATU News (ABC Portland) - The ingredients for severe storms were there. Cooler air arrived early and robbed the storms of the energy they needed. Some thunderstorms did occur around the area, more in Washington than Oregon. <a href="https://katu.com/news/local/behind-the-forecast-why-anticipated-severe-weather-fizzled-out-west-of-the-cascades-salem-oregon-washington-seattle-storm-prediction-center-cap-cape-thunderstorm-tornado-hail" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">katu.com/news/local/behind-the</span><span class="invisible">-forecast-why-anticipated-severe-weather-fizzled-out-west-of-the-cascades-salem-oregon-washington-seattle-storm-prediction-center-cap-cape-thunderstorm-tornado-hail</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/Portland" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Portland</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/PNW" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>PNW</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://avgeek.social/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a></p>
WeatherMatrix (Jesse Ferrell)<p>How It Started Oct. 27 vs. How It's Going Mar. 16 @ Crater Lake Annie Springs Entrance webcam. <a href="https://mastodon.world/tags/orwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>orwx</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>New article: Lightning causes damage in Washington but severe weather notably absent</p><p>- Review of yesterday's t-storm event<br>- Why Portland had barely anything and how this cascaded to weaken storm risk<br>- Discussion of the hype train</p><p><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/lightning-causes-damage-in-washington-but-severe-weather-notably-absent/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/light</span><span class="invisible">ning-causes-damage-in-washington-but-severe-weather-notably-absent/</span></a></p><p><a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>weather</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/ORwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>ORwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/WAwx" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>WAwx</span></a> <a href="https://mstdn.ca/tags/pdxtst" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>pdxtst</span></a></p>
Mark Ingalls<p>New article: Lightning causes damage in Washington but severe weather notably absent
- Review of yesterday's t-storm event
- Why Portland had barely anything and how this cascaded to weaken storm risk
- Discussion of the hype train
<a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/lightning-causes-damage-in-washington-but-severe-weather-notably-absent/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/l...</a>
<a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23weather" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#weather</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23ORwx" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ORwx</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23WAwx" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#WAwx</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23pdxtst" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#pdxtst</a><br><br><a href="https://ingallswx.com/2025/03/27/lightning-causes-damage-in-washington-but-severe-weather-notably-absent/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Lightning causes damage in Was...</a></p>
Ingalls Weather<p><strong>Lightning causes damage in Washington but severe weather notably absent</strong></p><p>Thunderstorms were observed throughout the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday as warm, moist air was brought into the region ahead of an incoming cold front and low pressure system. Night owls in Eastern Washington were treated to both lightning and the northern lights with beautiful videos captured in Connell and Moses Lake.</p><p>There was a risk of severe thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado. Despite a severe thunderstorm watch being issued, those conditions did not materialize anywhere in the region.</p><blockquote><p><em>Ingalls Weather thanks the support it gets from donors. Please consider making a small donation </em><a href="https://ingallswx.com/donate/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">at this link</a><em> to help me pay for the website and access to premium weather data.</em></p></blockquote><p><strong>Lightning damage</strong></p>Lightning damage reports received by the NWS. (RadarOmega)<p>The thunderstorms were particularly active in Washington where lightning strikes damaged homes and infrastructure. No injuries have been reported. Between Aberdeen and Ocean Shores, Grays Harbor PUD reported damage to some of their equipment around 17:20.</p><p>The storms approached Everett later in the evening where a shed was damaged and a house caught on fire in separate events. On Camano Island the National Weather Service received a report of a lightning striking a home, setting it on fire. The same strike also blew out two windows in that home and another window in a home nearby.</p> <p><a href="https://ingallswx.com/?post_type=post&p=5365" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Subscribe</a></p> <p><strong>Severe weather forecast bust?</strong></p>Data from the 17:00 PT Wednesday weather balloon at Salem, Oregon. (Univ. of Wyoming)<p>The conditions were in place to produce a few very large thunderstorms in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday, but these storms never materialized. For the Portland metro, weather was even more mellow than Seattle with just a few lightning strikes and generally light showers.</p><p>Thunderstorm development was impeded by a few issues. Surface moisture west of the Cascades was not as impressive as model guidance had shown in the lead up to the event. As such, there was less water to move upward to form larger thunderstorms.</p><p>This could have been overcome, however, if the capping inversion had been burst. Very warm temperatures were present in a layer above the surface due to the mid-level wind conditions. Cloud cover and influence from the Pacific Ocean kept the ground in Western Oregon from heating up enough to overcome the cap.</p><p>Showers did develop in Western Oregon but these were generally high-based instability. The region above the cap was drier than the surface, so there was less moisture to lift above the cap and the showers were quite a bit weaker than what was possible.</p><p>This had a cascading effect for the remainder of the day. The primary risk was that if the capping inversion broke, the moisture from the surface would surge upward rapidly and generate the kind of thunderstorms that can produce large hail and tornadoes.</p><p>Instead, by the time the storms started firing well in Southwest Washington daytime heating was already being lost and they didn’t have the momentum they could have had had storm development initiated somewhere closer to Salem or Eugene. As we saw last night, run of the mill thunderstorms can still cause damage but the threat is far less acute.</p><p>A capping inversion is a common theme in severe weather outbreaks in the Southern Plains. There, warm air from the high-altitude mountains of Northern Mexico is blown over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas from time to time.</p><p>The presence of a cap can actually amplify a severe weather threat. Without a cap, storms can fire too early and fizzle out. With a cap the energy below the inversion amplifies to sometimes extreme levels before there’s enough upward motion to blast through and initiate rapid storm development.</p><p>Severe weather forecasts involving a capping inversion are very difficult because on the one hand, a strong cap is hard to overcome even under otherwise ideal circumstances. On the other hand, if the cap is broken intense and damaging thunderstorms can flare up quite rapidly. Messaging such a scenario to the public can be as difficult as messaging a near-freezing possible snow event for Portland or Seattle.</p><p><strong>A derailed hype train</strong></p><p>Without naming names, it is important to acknowledge the role social media hype played in perceptions of this forecast bust. Responsible meteorologists and weather nerds throughout the region did what I felt was a decent job at conveying the risk of this setup while avoiding the hype.</p><p>It is inevitable that there will be some form of a hype train in these events. People naturally grasp onto the worst possible scenario, which in this case was tennis ball size hail and tornadoes.</p><p>That said, the hype was worsened by some social media pages who either are run by excited weather nerds themselves or to generate web traffic. Terms such as “GORILLA HAIL” were applied when the risk for large hail was always quite low. One problematic page even took it upon themselves to issue their own tornado watch leading to hundreds of shares on Facebook.</p><p>Well-meaning excited meteorologists and weather nerds can use this as a teaching moment on the importance of messaging and severe weather risk. I don’t fault weather nerds for being excited by a truly unique severe weather setup in an unusual part of the world. Heck, I may or may not have been one of those with my Facebook weather page in high school.</p><p>I am a firm believer in the value of having an aspiring meteorologist posting public-facing weather content on social media. This experience in dealing with people helped prepare me for my career. I even got my start at WSU’s AgWeatherNet partially because of my social media activity.</p><p>Aspiring and amateur meteorologists should learn what they can from this experience but not have their love of weather derailed by the haters. There are many with any forecast bust. I know a meteorologist who once had a 100°F (55°C) forecast bust because of an unexpected chinook. Things happen, and we can grow from them.</p><p>At the same time, the general public should be weary of social media outlets that are talking about uncommonly severe weather of any type. If you see a post with a forecast that you think is pretty out there, it can be useful to get a second opinion before sharing. That second opinion could be a different page on Facebook or, if you’re feeling really skeptical, you could call your local National Weather Service office.</p><p><em>The featured image is a lightning strike seen from White Rock, B.C. on Wednesday evening. (Alisha Ingalls)</em></p><p><a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/orwx/" target="_blank">#orwx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/pdxtst/" target="_blank">#pdxtst</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/seattle/" target="_blank">#Seattle</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/wawx/" target="_blank">#wawx</a> <a rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" class="hashtag u-tag u-category" href="https://ingallswx.com/tag/weather/" target="_blank">#Weather</a></p>
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