Query about Brexit.
Think back before 2015-2016, if you can.
Can you remember having opinions before 2015 about referendums on EU questions?
This could be about referendums on the constitutional treaty, or on monetary union, or even on the issue of membership itself.
My research shows that some on the "left" or were big-L or small-l liberals supported the use of referendums on EU questions.
Were you? And what do you remember about what you thought at the time?
@davidallengreen I've never been in favour of referendums as the electorate generally doesn't have a sufficiently in-depth knowledge of the subjects they're being asked to judge. This invariably reduces complex concepts to simple arguments that can be shaped in the interests of politicians and media owners as we've seen.
@davidallengreen I remember @jon raising the issue of a UK referendum on EU membership in the lead up to the 2015 GE. And I’m sure he was talking about a potential referendum before then as well.
@AbigailDombey @davidallengreen I have been writing about it a while! https://jonworth.eu/why-an-in-or-out-of-the-eu-referendum-is-not-the-solution-some-in-labour-think-it-is/
@davidallengreen I opposed it. As a Labour member back then. This from 2013: https://labourlist.org/2013/09/eu-referendum-is-last-thing-labour-needs/
People who favoured a referendum fell into two camps. Lefty EU sceptics (not very numerous) and those who didn’t want to talk about the EU and thought a referendum would then not be an issue at 2015 election (more numerous)
@davidallengreen
The thing I remember from living in the Republic of Ireland was: they had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and people voted against 53:47.
So the government made an attempt to explain it better, then held a second referendum, and people voted 2-to-1 in favour.
So unlike what happened in the UK.
@etymologic @davidallengreen I voted in those two referendums. For the first one, no one, including myself - and I took the time to read the literature provided - really understood what we were being asked to vote on. So I was not surprised the first one tanked. The second one was a no-brainer because it was clearer what we were voting for. The electorate were astute enough not to vote for something they didn't understand first time around. When they got clarification, they voted accordingly.
@etymologic Those who see this as some sort of 'own' by the EU are completely wrong, imo. To me it was democracy in action. The government tried to take us for granted and we weren't having any of it! If they want us to vote for something, the least they can do is make it clear what we are voting for. So egg on gov's face - not the electorate voting.
@davidallengreen I think I was keen for one on joining the euro, until seeing how badly handled the AV referendum we handled and deciding any vote without real education and engagement would be a waste of time
@davidallengreen I've generally been against referendums of any sort, I don't agree with them on much but once, so was the Tory party, Thatcher famously labeled them “a device of dictators and demagogues”. I have to agree with her
@davidallengreen My memory was that the UK was, and continues to be, shy about referenda. Generally, we expect the parties to put their stalls out on EU policies and people to vote accordingly.
At least, that's how I remember it.
@davidallengreen I've a fleeting memory about monetary union and five rules being met as a possible pre-cursor to a referendum (not the brexit one) way, way earlier maybe early 2000's. But tbh. it's become a blur, drowned out by events after 2016.
@davidallengreen I've seen it as a complicated matter mostly. Most referendums on for example the Lisbon Treaty hasn't served to heighten the trust in the EU.
@davidallengreen My view was (and is) that holding a referendum about something that very few people really understand is a terrible idea. That's on top of my more principled objections to the concept.
In theory, a referendum campaign can help educate, and as a result you might end up with a permanent improvement in legitimacy, but the April 2016 Dutch referendum about the Ukraine association accord crushed any hope that that might happen.
@davidallengreen As I recall, as a centre leftist, that I had been uneasy about the way that the Tories had been able to unilaterally commit the UK to Maastricht (even though that wasn't necessarily bad), and supported the idea that major constitutional changes should go though a popular vote as a double-lock preventing a party in power forcing through changes. On the other hand I remembered the AV referendum as being a model of bad-faith cross-party campaigning with the wrong result.
@davidallengreen I was always opposed to any kind of referendum on the EU. We already had one in 1975 and it always seemed likely that the right would do literally anything to get us out
@davidallengreen I supported one on the question of joining the euro. Unfortunately technical issue but the great differences on other policies between Lab and Con seemed to make it inevitable. Probably the fact that it was was a big part of why Brown vetoed it behind the wheeze of the 5 bogus tests. No guarantee of winning it then.
@davidallengreen While generally I am in favour of things like referenda, in the UK there is no proportional representation so voting power of many in "safe" constituencies is severely constrained. This means that only in referenda is there an opportunity to voice an opinion in a way that matters. Then a referendum can be a vote on the popularity of the government. As the popular vote does not equate to who gets power in the UK parliament, this means that the core issue can take a back seat.
@davidallengreen I watched the Irish repeat referendums on Nice and Lisbon from a close distance and felt that both times the 'No' vote succeeded by playing on fears and raising doubts. It seemed to me that a referendum should be stacked in favour of the status quo, so if you wanted something to change, best to avoid them. 2016 showed I was wrong. Perhaps it also showed vast dissatisfaction with the status quo, without understanding the alternative.
@ma_heids_mince @davidallengreen
re #Brexit vote: "Perhaps it also showed vast dissatisfaction with the status quo, without understanding the alternative."
I think this is very true. Most people I know voted Remain, but I do have vivid memories of a couple of chats with people who'd voted Leave. For one, the reason they gave me was literally something like "well, I didn't think things were going very well, and I thought it would be good to have a change".
@ma_heids_mince @davidallengreen
For the other Leave voter, their motive was primarily about lack of council housing, and a perception that this was due to the available houses being allocated to immigrant families.
I don't think either of those people had any concept of the many other things they were effectively voting for. And I'm not totally sure that the second one understood either how the Thatcher-era government policies had reduced the council housing.
@davidallengreen I didn't feel a need to be asked about individual issues because I had a much higher trust level in the people making the choices and believed in the idea of an elected representative speaking for me. Both heady stuff and hopelessly naive at the same time
@bykimbo @davidallengreen This. Now, I have no confidence in the political class, and they are a class, whatsoever. At least when it comes to representing either the will of the majority or the common good.
@davidallengreen I wasn’t a fan of the idea because of background and training.
Constitution is very anti-referendum for good historical reasons although a few states do have them. My law teachers always warned of populism risk. Much prefer having constitutional issues decided by representative democratic means - with supermajorities if necessary.
Having said that, I am pro Indyref mainly because UK constitution doesn’t seem to provide the Scots with a viable alternative.
I think there should have been a referendum on joining the Euro if a government had proposed to.
And there should have been a referendum on the Lisbon treaty as Tony Blair promised, only to renege when it looked like it might not get through. If this had been done (win or lose) I don't think Brexit would have occurred.
@davidallengreen here in Ireland we had lots of European referendums. Some were straightforward, some not so. At least one had to be re-run to get the necessary answer!
But: the issues were discussed (sometimes ad nauseum) and I think we all felt better after the event. 87% pro EU membership suggests we had a different outcome to UK - were the referendums the reason? Impossible to tell but one important difference to UK.
@davidallengreen I was always determinedly pro-EU, pro-Euro, against the Eurosceptics. Redwood was probably the first one I took agadinst back in the 90s. Definitely didn't want them having their referendum, not so much because I thought they'd win, but to not give them another inch.
Living in the US I loved the many local ballot issues. Plenty of debate on things like cannabis, when we legalised first medicinal then recreation use. We could do with more local focussed referenda in the UK.
@davidallengreen before the ref had no opinion on the EU and didn't appreciate what I do now about FOM and such. I did think we shouldn't join the Euro though and now learning about MMT has somewhat cemented that view. At least, as far as I understand it at this moment.
@davidallengreen Remember this?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/25/eu.liberaldemocrats
I can't remember exactly what I thought at the time but it was probably something like "Ha! This is clever. That'll make them put up or shut up."
We were sweet summer children back in 2008, some of us.
Of course then Cameron went and did exactly this for exactly that reason and got the result he got...
I would have supported refs on EU issues but can't recall ever discussing one before 2014/5 when the issue of having one on staying/leaving the EU was being raised in the press. Perhaps I missed these conversations?
@davidallengreen I never objected to the principle of a referendum, it was only in hindsight that the flaws of presenting a simple binary question to a complex issue became apparent. IMO the ref should have at a minimum been legally binding, to force proper debate in Parliament, and to allow any perceived irregularities to be challengeable in court.
The Referendum was a case study in Daniel Kahneman's Nobel prize winning assertion that emotion, not reason governs our choices.
@davidallengreen I remember being interested by a candidate’s argument standing to be our MP.
He promised to be a technocrat and put every vote before the house open to constituent text polls that he would vote according to win, claiming this would be both true democracy and technocracy.
He got double digits returned voting for this but it was a premise that looked like the future at the time.
This was the election before Nick Clegg’s PR vote.
@davidallengreen my experience working on #eu issues from the UK was that most of those within the #Westminster bubble were not interested enough in the EU to try and understand #EUDemocracy or engage with it. There was also a lack of understanding of most on how deeply the UK was integrated into the EU & how important ‘boring’ #regulation is.
It was therefore clear - even without the lies from vote leave- that there was a good chance that the debate would be based on myths and misunderstanding
@davidallengreen I really didn't think referendums were a good idea. The first time I voted was in the 1975 EU referendum. My view then, as now, is that most people are insufficiently familiar with, or informed about, such issues to make a sensible decision.
Surely the reason we elect democratic representatives is for them to take these decisions on our behalf because they (should) have the time and the will to be properly informed and consult their constituents before making a decision?
@meadowend @davidallengreen
Unfortunately these representatives don’t consult with their constituents- they see themselves as arbiters of what we think. Have not even been told who my MP backed in the leadership election. They just don’t see themselves accountable.
Then you have Brexit- supporting MEPs like David Campbell Bannerman who have an agenda.
@davidallengreen Hi David, I recall that there was a wave of referendums across Europe seeking to ratify the Maastricht treaty, but the UK didn't go down the same route, I suspect because Major feared the outcome. As a left-leaning voter I thought it odd that we weren't offered a referendum, but then it wasn't clear to me (or I suspect a lot of others) exactly what we would have been voting on anyway. H.
@davidallengreen I always felt the Brexit referendum was divisive and biased towards stoking up tribal aggression
I argued my point regularly to people who I had always respected (in-laws, friends parents mainly) and was told, rather strongly, that I didn’t know what I was talking about
My total devastation at what is playing out now does not give me the ‘told you so vibes’.
Just deep, deep sadness
@davidallengreen I remember agreeing that it was the obvious course of action for things that make fundamental changes.
Voting changes, constitutional changes, etc.
Now I'm really not sure how it should happen.
One thing I feel is clear. That if it is a referendum, then it should be between concrete choices. Not things that are open to wide ranging interpretation after the vote.
@davidallengreen Didn't think about it. Always thought elections should have this stuff in the manifestos and do it that way. Left wingers would do it in a LW way. And vice-bloody-versa.
@davidallengreen I remember I was against a referendum on membership. I
don't remember my reasoning. I certainly feared a referendum would go the wrong way (in my view) - which of course happened - but also that it would be too easy to manipulate.
@davidallengreen I think I’m liberal and leftish and I was always anti referendum on EU matters. I never believed people understood the complexities and trade-offs associated with any decision. But I underestimated just how effectively so many could be whipped up to vote against their interests.
@davidallengreen I remember thinking that not holding a referendum on the Lisbon treaty (as had previously been promised) was going to backfire. Not happy to have been proven right!
@davidallengreen having never taken part in one, I generally thought they were a good thing. But people do need access to proper facts in order to make informed decisions. Switzerland seems to handle it well, they vote regularly.
Brexit has shown what a disaster they can be if people don't understand the issue.
@davidallengreen I was in favour of a referendum because I believed it would deflate a small but vocal and disruptive anti-EU movement in British politics.
@davidallengreen I remember supporting a referendum on changing the voting system for general elections but after that I wanted those who were elected to make decisions including on big issues like the EU, balancing the costs and benefits and being accountable for the results
@davidallengreen
Ooh, I love being surveyed!
I remember the 1975 referendum although wasn't old enough to vote but I thought that would put an end to the debate, believing it would be nothing short of madness not to be right in the middle of the European Project.
Never expected to see another referendum even after Maastricht.
Naively didn't even recognise that other people wanted one until Caneron's manifesto promise.
Hope that helps
@davidallengreen I think I'd always assumed there would be a referendum on monetary union because it seemed such a profound change. I remember thinking the need for a referendum on Mastricht was over the top as it seemed such a marginal issue
@davidallengreen I took it all for granted and gave it zero thought. Trying to think back to what I would have thought, I'd have said a referendum was needed for membership but probably not monetary union. Treaty change would depend on what would have changed. I would have been wrong - a referendum would be right for both, though we need to consider how to run them better!
@davidallengreen I never really thought that referendums about the EU were going to work. In spite of what most people appear to think, the EU is (mostly) a technical organisation with a sprinkling of politics thrown in to set guidance. Most issues are way too technical for general voters to understand (not because they can’t but simply because of the effort required) and therefore better left to elected politicians and (probably more importantly) civil servants.
@davidallengreen I’ve never liked referendums. They have some use in ratifying a settled will for a radical constitutional change where such a will exists, and they can effectively entrench some lesser reforms. But as a way of deciding issues, particularly those without much of a consensus and where the change option is non-specific: No. The 2011 referendum is one of the worst things to have happened to the electoral reform movement and I thought so at the time.
@davidallengreen … I did occasionally feel that I might be wrong - that an In/ Out referendum might be clarifying after all and worth suspending my dislike of the mechanism - but my gut feeling that it was a hell of a risk and no way to decide the issue turned out to be true.
@davidallengreen Eurozone referendum, but in Denmark, because this was discussed in a book on the gold standard that I was reading whilst studying French.
@davidallengreen I'm very much on the left, and was notionally in favour of referendums whilst not having given them a great deal of thought.
I have never believed that referendums are a good idea, including the original one on EEC entry. I believed, and still do, that it is Parliament’s responsibility to make relevant decisions, including those about our relationships and obligations with Europe.
I am most definitely on the left of centre and a small “l” liberal.
Funnily enough I've just written "leftish small-l liberal" in my bio.
I've opposed referendums as a means of making public policy for a long time. The ideal of a well informed public applying critical thinking on issues with long term consequences is just not going to happen.
I was against the EU referendum for that reason and because I saw it as a risk. Justified fear as it turned out.
Also mad with the LDs over 2011 voting ref. Should have insisted Parliament decide.
@davidallengreen Can’t say I did, in fact the opposite. I was always afraid about the outcome if the anti EU Tory hardliners, obsessed with Europe for as long as I can remember, got their chance to achieve their mission. Unfortunately Cameron’s arrogance and lack of judgement allowed their wish to come true.
@davidallengreen Don't specifically remember, but don't think I was generally against them for things like monetary union (I was in favour).
When Cameron proposed a nuclear referendum, I changed my mind.
Such big issues should not, nor can they, be answered through referendums.
@davidallengreen @vermisstpfarrer I’ve always been lukewarm about full monetary union for reasons which were demonstrated in Greece; for all John Major’s faults I always thought his Hard ECU idea made more sense economically