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@pvonhellermannn what's sad is that it proves that putting activists in prison works. I am not getting much hope from Greenpeace saying they will basically keep on fighting. Last time they moved the dial was in the 80s.

@sheislaurence i know.. exactly that. Such an overwhelming sense at the moment that the arseholes have won. Everything. Acknowledging this hopefully is a first step towards figuring out a way out. I don’t know.

@pvonhellermannn @sheislaurence they haven't won, they've just ensured a more militant and violent response. Jailing and bankrupting peaceful movements is removing a stress valve on your society. I don't think it's going to be that long before people start torching petrol stations. This ruling class is so idiotic and delusional, they don't see how fragile and vulnerable modern systems are.

@BenjaminKlein @pvonhellermannn @sheislaurence

They see it, they just don't care. Even when it means shooting their own future in the foot, they're always looking forward to bringing more violence down on us in the growing chaos-- which some people will point out as if it's somehow a reason NOT to resist, instead of an even bigger reason why we MUST resist.

@pvonhellermannn okay, like that. Yeah it's bleak, the worst possible people have power. The protests give me hope and that despite all their pretending the real world actually exists and no decree changes that. Trump isn't getting his way with Tarrifs, Musk isn't making the government efficient and climate change is going nowhere. Instead they are being exposed every day as incompetent charlatans and they are miserable, just deeply isolated and unhappy.

@BenjaminKlein that’s the best way of looking at all this! I shall come back to it when feeling particularly bleak

@RhinosWorryMe @pvonhellermannn My immediate concern is that the chancellor appears to be in favor of more fossil fuels, both extraction and use. Just because in theory it is government policy not to grant any new licenses does not mean it will stay that way.

As for the wider tactical questions, that's tricky.

On the one hand, the government is continuing a lawsuit to try to get the supreme court to support the Serious Disruption Regulations. That would give the police near-unlimited power to shut down ordinary mass marches. There may also be further legislation; if they lose the case, they'll presumably try to put it into primary legislation; the tories tried, the Lords blocked it, but there's plenty of time and potentially opposition support.

If they end up enforcing this, if we see more people arrested at peaceful marches (we're already seeing that!), then you have to ask what is the most effective way to protest?

Sure, the ECHR will eventually step in. Starmer knows we can't withdraw from the ECHR or repeal the Human Rights Act because of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Good Friday Agreement. But still, government can pass an illegal law and then replace it every time a court says it is unlawful. And there's a sizeable faction in Labour that sees climate protesters, and Gaza protesters, as an enemy to be crushed, partly because of the tories' anti-green attacks during the election campaign.

So really it's up to the state right now. If they want to close off all lawful means of protest, then we'll have to protest unlawfully.

And if that is the case ... well, there are already below-the-radar sabotage groups operating. Andreas Mohr makes an interesting case.

However, it's worth trying to keep mass mobilization going for as long as it remains viable. A radical fringe is most effective if it is actually a fringe of a wider movement.

@RhinosWorryMe @pvonhellermannn As for JSO it may be no more than a rebrand and reorganization. We'll see.

XR announced "we quit" a while back, but it was a much more nuanced announcement: that they would focus on disrupting power rather than disrupting everyday life. XR is very much still in operation.