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#uncertainty

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#Trump's second-term "America First" agenda has alienated friends & emboldened adversaries while raising questions about how far he is prepared to go. His actions, coupled with that #uncertainty, have so unnerved some governments that they are responding in ways that could be difficult to undo, even if a more traditional US president is elected in 2028.

#Trump's first 100 days: The ’America First’ president is overturning the world order

In the chaotic first 100 days since Trump returned to office, he has waged an often unpredictable campaign that has upended parts of the #RulesBasedWorldOrder that Washington helped build from the ashes of WWII.

#AmericanAutocracy #NewWorldOrder #Chaos #Uncertainty #economy #geopolitics #NationalSecurity #InfoSec #Government #democracy #Constitution #Law #power
reuters.com/world/us/trumps-fi

"Speed beats hesitation. Especially when the path isn't clear." - Futurist Jim Carroll

In a downturn, momentum matters more than perfection. Delay costs more than missteps. The biggest risk isn’t moving too fast—it’s moving too slow while the world speeds up.

And yet, In times of uncertainty, the most natural instinct of all is to wait. Wait for the data. Wait for a signal. Wait until the noise settles, the picture clarifies, and the next steps feel obvious. But here’s what too many leaders forget - the path forward doesn’t get clearer by standing still, it gets clearer by moving.

We are deep into a moment when the cost of indecision is far greater than the cost of action, and the trap of your 'aggressive indecision' becomes more significant every day. I've seen it play out countless times: a moment of economic volatility hits, and leadership teams and people fall into a state in which they decide the easiest decision to make is to simply .... not make them.

It’s not that they don’t care. It’s that they overthink things. They fritter away time in endless meetings. They chase every scenario. They wait for perfect timing. They pause strategic initiatives. They delay customer-facing launches. They stall their momentum—believing they’re being cautious when in reality, they’re just stuck. And so in a world in which the future belongs to those who are fast, they slow down.

And while they stall? Markets shift. Competitors move Talent gets restless. Customers look elsewhere. That's the wrong thing to do - history favors the decisive, and who move at the speed demanded by fast-changing circumstances.

Data backs this up. A comprehensive Harvard Business Review study of 4,700 public companies over three recessions found that the top performers weren’t the ones who paused—they were the ones who acted strategically, quickly, and with confidence. Only 9% of companies outperformed their peers after a downturn—and they did it by balancing discipline with decisive moves at speed. A McKinsey study found the same: companies that moved first and fast during a downturn consistently gained market share during the recovery.

In short? While caution may feel responsible, the real risk lies in hesitation.

Doing nothing often costs far more than doing something imperfectly.

So what should you do? Start moving. Fast. Start moving before you’re ready - simply because you know that speed matters.

----
Futurist Jim Carroll recognizes that moving at speed matters and that with this period of uncertainty set to linger for quite some time, a book to help leaders dance through the rain is timely.

**#Speed** **#Indecision** **#Action** **#Momentum** **#Uncertainty** **#Leadership** **#Strategy** **#Agility** **#Opportunities** **#Progress**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

"Uncertainty? Don't wait for clarity —create it!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

In a downturn, experimentation isn’t risky. It’s responsible - because it helps to build some clarity where often that clarity does not yet exist.

That doesn't seem intuitive. In uncertain times, it’s easy to assume that clarity comes from caution - that the path forward will emerge once the noise dies down, once the data stabilizes, and once the market settles.

You end up waiting a long time for that! You end up waiting for clarity that never comes, because here’s the truth: clarity doesn’t arrive. It’s earned.

And the way you earn it—especially in a downturn—is by moving.

Testing. Learning. Iterating. Acting. Trying ideas to see what works. Doing things for the sake of doing, not necessarily for the big win, but to figure out what works, and what does not. And in doing so, you create your sense of clarity.  That’s how you cut through the fog. That’s how you avoid paralysis.

That’s how you lead.

Experiments are your edge in an era of uncertainty because they are fuel to ignite clarity that is otherwise missing. Remember what I've said in this series - in times of economic pressure, many organizations retreat into stasis They pause product launches, cancel initiatives, and wait for signals. But the companies that thrive in a downturn do the opposite: They turn uncertainty into a laboratory. They run small tests. They build fast prototypes. They launch controlled rollouts. They create momentum—and clarity—through movement.

That’s not reckless. It’s responsible. And it builds something more valuable than predictions or plans: experiential capital.

Here’s how you start building that advantage now:

- launch a live test. Choose one customer segment. Try something new. Measure real results.

- prototype under pressure. Push a rough idea into the market. Let feedback shape the next version.

- accelerate learning loops. Replace long planning cycles with fast experiments. Learn weekly, not quarterly.

- capture insight. Build a shared learning bank. Don’t waste failure—mine it for gold.

- empower your team to try. Make experimentation safe. Celebrate effort, not just outcomes.

- rush something forward. It doesn’t have to be perfect—just real. Let motion build momentum.

- track what works. Treat every test as a data generator. Use outcomes to refine, redirect, and repeat.

- build a culture of motion. Innovation isn’t a project. It’s a mindset. You build it by doing.

Use urgency as fuel. In the face of hesitation, push forward. Action reveals what planning can’t. Make experiential capital your strategy. In a world that punishes delay, the most learned win..

#Experimentation #Clarity #Action #Testing #Innovation #Momentum #Learning #Strategy #Uncertainty #Adaptation

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

“In the face of uncertainty, most managers cut. But leaders build.” - Futurist Jim Carroll

Anyone can cut costs. Slash and burn. Downsize staff. Close divisions. And in an economic downturn, that becomes the norm.

But there are only a few who can do the opposite - focus on growth.

After nine days of exploring how to lead with resilience, innovation, and momentum, one truth now takes center stage: Growth isn’t a result. It’s a decision.

And in moments of deep uncertainty, the best leaders choose it - on purpose.

Back in 2009, I spoke at a lot of corporate events amid the global economic downturns and witnessed firsthand how different organizations were dealing with it. I vividly remember the message the CEO of one global organization delivered at their leadership summit, sharing their recession roadmap with perfect clarity: “Our strategic priorities: survive, innovate, grow. We’ve done survival. Now we’re focused on building.”

That’s the growth mindset that is needed today. While others pull back, delay projects, freeze spending, and wait for signs of recovery, real leaders are moving forward. Fast. With intent. Because they understand that growth doesn’t happen after the storm passes. It begins now.

Around that time, in an interview with FoodProcessing.com, I shared the story of a global restaurant chain CEO who spoke just after the 2008 financial crisis; I was to follow him on stage for my message on the importance of innovation and looking forward. He opened with one minute on the dismal economic conditions and then spent the next nineteen minutes outlining eight clear growth opportunities.

He didn’t dwell on uncertainty. He obsessed over what came next.

This is how bold leadership sounds.

And in 2025, it’s exactly what’s needed. You might not see it, but this is what is happening in some organizations right now. And maybe it's the precise mindset that you need at this very moment. Right now, some leaders are:
investing with precision — not across-the-board cuts, but selective spending that seeds future wins.

The question isn't: “Will the economy recover?” It's: “Will you be ready when it does?” Or "Will someone else have already captured the ground you hesitated to take?”

So ask yourself: Are you leading from fear? Or building toward growth?
Because in the face of uncertainty, managers cut.

But leaders?

They build.

----
Futurist Jim Carroll knows that history shows us that 10% of organizations become breakthrough performers in times of economic volatility.

**#Growth** **#Leadership** **#Uncertainty** **#Building** **#Innovation** **#Mindset** **#Resilience** **#Opportunity** **#Future** **#Strategy**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

Would you want to do business with:

A country that was so #unstable, you couldn't be sure if minimum standards of health and safety were adhered to?

A country so racked with #uncertainty, entire companies and expertise to service and maintain complex products could disappear overnight?

A country so #dysfunctional you'd worry if you sent personnel over to study or work they could randomly be shot at, attacked, arrested?

The world is saying "NO" to America because of #Trump and #Republicans.

alojapan.com/1249804/uncertain Uncertainty remains as Japan, US begin tariff talks #Japan #JapanNews #news #tariff #trump #uncertainty #us According to a Japanese government source, Trump made uncertain claims, such as that Japan’s trade surplus with the United States is as high as 120 billion dollars and that there are no US-made cars in Japan. It remains unclear what is and is not in the scope of negotiations. Issues such as Japan’s defence spending and …

"In a time of uncertainty, the future doesn’t slow down to give you time to make up your mind!" - Futurist Jim Carroll

Uncertainty is not an excuse to stall. It’s a signal to move—strategically, swiftly, and with intent.

And yet, in moments like this, indecision becomes the silent killer. Leaders delay. Organizations drift. People pause, waiting for “clarity” that never comes. And in a moment in history that features relentlessly unpredictable - and some would say insane - levels of uncertainty, indecision becomes aggressive.

But the future doesn’t reward those who hesitate. It penalizes them, punishes them, and hurts them, by setting them further back. It rewards those who know how to pivot, adapt, and accelerate—even when the ground is shifting beneath them. I've said this before: “The biggest risk isn’t moving too fast—it’s moving too slow while the world speeds up.” That reality becomes more pronounced during an era of uncertainty.

In every previous downturn, we’ve seen the same pattern. The companies that acted with agility—who streamlined decision-making, shortened timelines, and empowered their teams—came out ahead. They didn’t rush blindly. But they didn’t wait for permission, either. They were bold, fast, and focused.

What did they do?

- they built cross-functional teams with the authority to decide in real-time.

- they prototyped quickly, then scaled what worked.

-they adopted an iteration mindset: test, learn, refine—then repeat.

- they aligned on mission clarity, so even in chaos, the direction was clear.

And that mindset isn’t just aspirational. It’s proven through research. I summed it up after the last crisis: “Bureaucracy is out. Speed is everything. The future belongs to those who can decide—and move.”

Here's the key thing to think about: agility isn’t recklessness. It’s responsiveness. It’s not about rushing blindly—it’s about having the confidence to move when others are still overanalyzing the map.
The greatest risk right now? It isn’t moving too fast. It’s moving too slowly while the world speeds up. And the greatest mistake? Doing nothing.

So as this new era of global uncertainty accelerates, are you still fine-tuning your plans while others are executing theirs?

Because the future isn’t waiting.

And neither should you.

**#Uncertainty** **#Action** **#Agility** **#Speed** **#Decision** **#Future** **#Leadership** **#Strategy** **#Adaptation** **#Momentum**

Original post: jimcarroll.com/2025/04/decodin

Continued thread

"Regulatory #uncertainty, #funding cuts, #immigration restrictions, & diminished international collaboration create a perfect storm for #BrainDrain," said Gray McDowell at…Capgemini Invent.

#Europe's political leaders feel the stance of the #Trump admin has put wind in their sails.

"The American government is currently using brute force against the #universities in the #USA, so that #researchers from #America are now contacting Europe," #Germany's chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, said.